Case Study: Boosting Profits and Safety by Eliminating Overpouring

Gregg • January 15, 2025

(4th in the "It’s Not Magic, It’s Math" series)



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The Problem: Overpouring Costs


In December 2013, after secret shopper visits revealed a client’s bartenders were significantly overpouring spirits, I was hired to conduct a best bar practices workshop. In the workshop, I shared with his bar staff how my OPulator (Over Pouring Calculator—an Excel spreadsheet populated with simple algorithms that used client sales information and secret shopper findings) guesstimated the client might increase monthly profits by $11,000 if overpouring was eliminated. The gathered bartenders also heard how the increased profits would be a result of a reduction in the cost of goods purchased and a bump in sales since some customers would order another drink once overpoured drinks were eliminated—meaning the bartenders would also make more in tips (as would the servers).



The Results: Increased Profitability


In January 2015, the client (the business owner) called me for help. He had submitted the needed business records to his tax attorney for filing his return, but his attorney was uncomfortable. The attorney couldn’t understand how the client purchased noticeably fewer spirits from vendors but sold significantly more spirits to his customers. Naturally, I agreed to help. The client emailed to connect me to his tax attorney.



That was followed by me emailing the tax attorney (Vicki) some training information, and then a 40-minute phone conversation. It turns out the client made a bit over $10,000 more profit a month after his bartenders eliminated overpouring. Once I shared information about the spotter reports and the OPulator, Vicki was satisfied and impressed, declaring everyone needed to do this! Yep.




The Broader Impact: Enhanced Public Safety


Years later, Lauren and I were meeting with Riverside Sheriffs. We were recommending the bar best practices workshop for their businesses. An officer asked, “How do you know the training improves public safety?” Fair question.


I did a public records request for the $10,000 more profit a month business, seeking calls for service records for the two years prior to my best bar practices workshop and the two years after the workshop.





 In the two years following the best bar practices workshop, the business’s call for service dropped by 25%.


Years later, I came across a bulletin from Partners Specialty Insurance that stated bars with strict pouring controls experience around half the number of insurance claims compared to bars that do not have strict pouring controls. 


It’s very simple: customers who are less intoxicated are less likely to start a fight or create an incident that results in a call for service and an insurance claim.


It’s not magic, it’s math.



Upcoming in the It’s Not Magic, It’s Math series:


  • My $14,000,000 Mistake
  • The People Behind the Numbers




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Most city leaders see alcohol businesses as reliable sources of tax revenue. However, many cities unknowingly carry a financial burden called the Alcohol Footprint —the net cost to the city after accounting for all revenue from alcohol businesses versus the expenses they generate. The Hidden Costs of Alcohol Businesses Take Fullerton, California, as an example. In 2002, the city created a Restaurant Overlay District downtown, eventually housing 49 alcohol-licensed establishments. While this boosted nightlife, it also brought increased demand for city services. A 2006 report revealed the District cost the city $935,500 more annually than it earned. The largest expenses came from police, fire, and maintenance services. The report anticipated the deficit would grow with the need to add four new police officers costing $412,000 per year. Fullerton officials deserve credit for identifying the problem, but what about the Alcohol Footprint for an entire city? The numbers can be staggering. A Broader Issue One client city recently calculated its Alcohol Footprint across all 300 of its alcohol-serving businesses and discovered losses “significantly more than $1,000,000 annually. ” If your city is like most, with alcohol businesses that mostly close by 10 PM, some by midnight, and a few staying open until 2 AM, it likely carries a substantial Alcohol Footprint. Why does this happen? It’s often due to a lack of best practices: Inadequate Conditions of Approval: Many cities fail to include effective regulations for alcohol businesses in permits due to insufficient training in urban planning programs. Limited State Flexibility: California’s Alcohol Beverage Control (ABC) is constrained by State liquor laws on what conditions the agency can document for a new licensee. Insufficient Police Training: California police officers receive just two hours of ABC law training in their Basic Academy, which includes no guidance on preventing disorderly alcohol establishments. Knowledge Gaps in the Industry: Most alcohol business operators and food-and-beverage managers lack access to training in best practices. The Solution: Best Practices for Alcohol Businesses Despite these challenges, there’s a clear path forward. Our Best Practices for Nightlife Establishments booklet equips alcohol businesses with strategies to reduce intoxication, lower service calls, and improve community safety. Research by Levy and Miller found every $1 spent on controlling over-service saves cities $260. We’re passionate about supporting well-run alcohol businesses—they bring communities together for meals, entertainment, and memorable moments. But they need to operate responsibly to protect public safety and city resources. Learn more through our Insight series, It’s Not Magic, It’s Math.